Type of Publication: Article in Journal

A plea for an exit from Brexit and a second referendum

Clausen, V.
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International Economics and Economic Policy
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This note argues that basically all strands of available empirical and quantitative evidence on the economic effects of Brexit arrive at the conclusion that the economic burden for Britain will be substantial. Furthermore, there are good reasons to expect that these costs are currently even underestimated as dynamic effects of Brexit are insufficiently captured by existing methods. Furthermore, all scenarios assume an orderly Brexit which looks increasingly unlikely. The best way forward is an exit from Brexit and to call for a second referendum on the concrete two policy alternatives which are now on the table.

Brexit, the exit of Britain from the EU, is scheduled to happen on March 29, 2019. At present, the Brexit train seems almost unstoppable. While most earlier economic and political discussions centered around the concrete design of Brexit and the impact of different arrangements of economic integration in the post-Brexit period (“soft” versus “hard” Brexit), the most pressing question now is whether an orderly Brexit can still be accomplished.