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  • Clausen, V.; Schlösser, A.; Thiem, C.: Economic Policy Uncertainty in the Euro Area: Cross-Country Spillovers and Macroeconomic Impact. In: Journal of Economics and Statistics, Jg. 239 (2019) Nr. 5-6, S. 957-981. Volltext BIB Download Details
  • Prüser, J.; Schlösser, A.: The effects of economic policy uncertainty on European economies: evidence from a TVP-FAVAR. In: Empirical Economics (2019). doi:10.1007/s00181-018-01619-8 Volltext BIB Download Details
  • Prüser, J.; Schlösser, A.: On the Time-Varying Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the US Economy. In: Ruhr Economic Papers (2018) Nr. 761. Volltext BIB Download Details
  • Thiem, C.: Cross-category Spillovers of Economic Policy Uncertainty. In: Ruhr Economic Papers (2018) Nr. 744, S. 1-49. Volltext BIB Download Details

    This paper analyses the interdependence of policy uncertainty from 1985 to 2017 across six different categories of US economic policy: Monetary, fiscal, healthcare, national security, regulatory, and trade policy. To this end, we apply the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014) connectedness index methodology to the newspaper-based uncertainty indices developed by Baker et al. (2016). We find that, in total, the category-specific uncertainties are indeed closely interrelated. However, some policy categories are strong net transmitters of uncertainty spillovers (e.g. fiscal policy), while others show only a low degree of average connectedness and are predominantly net receivers (e.g. trade policy). A modified rolling-window approach further reveals that the intensity and direction of spillovers change significantly over time. The total connectedness index not only shows strong bursts related to certain events, but also exhibits a positive long-run trend. The latter is particularly driven by an increasing average connectedness of both healthcare and regulatory policy uncertainty. Finally, we highlight the different characteristics of the uncertainty network across presidential administrations, as well as before and after the most recent election.

  • Thiem, C.: Cross-category Trans-Pacific Spillovers of Policy Uncertainty and Financial Market Volatility.. In: Ruhr Economic Papers, Jg. 2019 (2018) Nr. 782. doi:10.4419/86788910 Volltext BIB Download Details

    Mit Hilfe von generalisierten Varianzdekompositionen aus Vektorautoregressionen untersuchen wir länder- und kategorieübergreifende Unsicherheits-Spillover-Effekte zwischen den USA und Japan. Dabei betrachten wir sowohl wirtschaftspolitische Unsicherheit (WPU) als auch Finanzmarktvolatilität. Unser Modell beinhaltet für jedes Land drei Maße geld-, fiskal- und handelspolitischer Unsicherheit sowie insgesamt drei Indizes für implizite Aktienmarkt- und Wechselkursvolatilität. Wir stellen zunächst fest, dass die Volatilitätsindizes in der Regel starke Netto-Sender von Spillover-Effekten gegenüber der Gruppe von WPU-Indikatoren sind. Gleichzeitig sind jedoch der japanische Aktien- und Devisenmarktvolatilitätsindex beide stärker von WPU-Spillovern betroffen als der US-amerikanische VXO. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen zudem, dass länderübergreifende WPU-Spillover im Vergleich zu inländischen Spillover-Effekten relativ klein und weniger volatil sind. Zuletzt zeigen wir, dass die Richtung der Netto-WPU-Spillover zwischen den USA und Japan sowohl zeit- als auch kategorieabhängig ist. Dabei fungieren im Laufe des Untersuchungszeitraums verschiedene WPU-Kategorien als starke Quellen von Unsicherheitsspillovern.

  • Thiem, C.: Oil Price Uncertainty and the Business Cycle: Accounting for the Influences of Global Supply and Demand Within a VAR GARCH-In-Mean Framework. In: Applied Economics (2018), S. 1-17. doi:10.1080/00036846.2018.1436142 BIB Download Details
  • Balistreri; E.J.; Olekseyuk; Z.; Tarr; D. : 'Privatization and the Unusual Case of Belarusian Accession to the WTO. In: The World Economy (2017). doi:10.1111/twec.12520 BIB Download Details
  • Prüser, J.; Schlösser, A.: The Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on European Economies: Evidence from a TVP-FAVAR. In: Ruhr Economic Papers (2017) Nr. 708. Volltext BIB Download Details
  • Olekseyuk, Z.; Balistreri, E.J.: Trade liberalization gains under different trade theories: a case study for Ukraine. In: Empirica (2017). doi:10.1007/s10663-017-9371-9 BIB Download Details
  • Thiem, C.: Oil Price Uncertainty and the Business Cycle: Accounting for the Influences of Global Supply and Demand Within a VAR GARCH-In-Mean Framework. In: Ruhr Economic Papers (2017) Nr. 674. doi:10.4419/86788782 BIB Download Details
  • Weber, C.; Nickol, P.: More on Calendar Effects on Islamic Stock Markets. In: Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, Jg. 12 (2016) Nr. 1, S. 65-113. Volltext BIB Download Details
  • Olekseyuk, Z.: Modeling of FDI in business services: additional effects in case of Ukraine's European integration. In: The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development (2016) Nr. 25 (7), S. 1010-1043. Volltext BIB Download Details
  • Olekseyuk, Z.; Schürenberg-Frosch, H.: Are Armington Elasticities Different Across Aountries and Sectors? A European Study. In: Economic Modelling (2016) Nr. 55, S. 328-342. Volltext BIB Download Details
  • Olekseyuk, Z.; : European Integration and Trade Liberalization Modeling Approaches for Eastern European Countries (1). 2015. BIB Download Details
  • Schuerenberg-Frosch, H.: How To Model A Child In School? - A Dynamic Macrosimulation Study For Tanzania. In: South African Journal of Economics, Jg. 83 (2015) Nr. 1, S. 117-139. doi:10.1111/saje.12042 Volltext BIB Download Details
  • Olekseyuk, Z.; Balistreri, E.: Trade Liberalization Gains under Different Trade Theories - A Case Study for Ukraine. In: Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business, Working Paper (2014) Nr. 13. Volltext BIB Download Details
  • Olekseyuk, Z.; Schürenberg-Frosch, H.: Are Armington Elasticites Different Across Countries and Sectors? - A European Study. In: Ruhr Economic Papers (2014) Nr. 513. Volltext BIB Download Details
  • Schuerenberg-Frosch, H.: Improving Africa’s Roads: - Modelling Infrastructure Investment and Its Effect on Sectoral Production Behaviour. In: Development Policy Review, Jg. 32 (2014) Nr. 3. BIB Download Details
  • Frey, M.; Olekseyuk, Z.: A General Equilibrium Evaluation of the Fiscal Costs of Trade Liberalization in Ukraine. In: Empirica. Journal of European Economics, Jg. 41 (2014) Nr. 3, S. 505-540. Volltext BIB Download Details
  • Clausen, V.; Wohltmann, H.-W.; : Oil Price Dynamics and Monetary Policy in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union. In: Journal of Economics and Statistics, Jg. 233 (2013) Nr. 2, S. 159-187. BIB Download Details
  • Klose, J.: Implicit Taylor Reaction Functions for Euro Area Countries. In: International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Jg. 2 (2012) Nr. 5.2012, S. 153-168. BIB Download Details
  • Klose, J.: The Taylor Rule in Times of Crisis - Empirical Evidence of the Financial Turmoil 2007-08 (1). 2012. BIB Download Details
  • Klose, J.: Political Business Cycles and Monetary Policy Revisited - An Application of a Two-Dimensional Asymmetric Taylor reaction Function. In: International Economics and Economics Policy, Jg. 9 (2012) Nr. 3/4, S. 265-295. BIB Download Details
  • Weigert, B.; Klose, J.: Das Verrechnungssystem der Federal Reserve und seine Übertragbarkeit auf den Euroraum. 92 (4). Wirtschaftsdienst (Hrsg.), 2012. BIB Download Details
  • Clausen, V.; Schürenberg-Frosch, H.: Aid, Spending Strategies and Productivity Effects - A Multi-Sectoral CGE-Analysis for Zambia. In: Economic Modelling, Jg. 29 (2012), S. 2254-2268. BIB Download Details
  • Clausen V.; Schürenberg-Frosch, H.: Private Consumption and Cyclical Asymmetries in the Euro Area. In: Intereconomics, Jg. 47 (2012) Nr. 3, S. 190-196. BIB Download Details
  • Schürenberg-Frosch, H.: Development aid and public investment programs in Sub-Sahara Africa - Modeling aid-financed investment in infrastructure and education and estimating relevant parameters (1). Universität Duisburg-Essen, Essen 2012. BIB Download Details

    From the perspective of Sub-Saharan Africa, the history of developmental aid is mostly a recollection of drawbacks and failures, although few success stories can be told as well. Over the last thirty years, many countries have received abundant developmental assistance, yet they are still struggling to reach adequate levels of human development. Many researchers, journalists and politicians, both from Africa and the Western countries, call for a substantial reformulation and reform of the international development aid framework. Consequently, research on the effects of developmental aid is crucial in the process of designing an informed new development agenda. At the same time it is important to understand how additional investments could operate and which effects are probable or possible for each of the specific fields. Additional indirect effects, may they be positive or negative, should be taken into account.

    This dissertation aims at providing insights into the aspects listed above by integrating development assistance and sector development programs into adequate economy-wide models for Sub-Saharan African states. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) methodology belongs to the standard toolkit of economic policy consulting. This thesis comprises three different CGE models complemented by an econometric study. The models elaborate on various aspects of aid-financed development programs. The here-presented models are an important contribution to the respective modeling literature and add detail to their existing counterparts, especially in regards to the modeling of government behavior and the endogenous households' skill choice for their child members. The third model is a recursive-dynamic model which integrates educational production as well as the choice between child labor supply and schooling.

    The second chapter in this dissertation focuses on the direct spending effect resulting from development aid being paid to the government of an African state. It investigates whether so called Dutch Disease effects from aid are possible and probable, yet it goes beyond the Dutch Disease literature. The model and the analysis distinguish between different aid-spending strategies on the one hand and the possible second-round effect on productivity on the other. The paper presents an application of the model to Zambia and subsequently incorporates the notion of enclave sectors in the economy (which is often the case in countries with large natural resources). Of the following three chapters each concentrates on distinctive areas where development aid might be invested in a way that fosters productivity.

    Chapter three shows how the effects of infrastructure improvements can be explicitly captured in a CGE model setup. In contrast to many other studies, the paper depicts infrastructure as a transport cost-reducing element which improves market access by providing a low cost alternative to transportation services. The paper emphasizes the positive effect of an improved road network for market access, as well as its effects on home consumption and small-scale farming.

    Chapter four extends the econometric analysis of infrastructure in the third chapter and elaborates further on the econometric relationship between transport costs and the status of the road network. The paper combines input-output data, road network data, meteorological as well as geographical data in order to analyze the key factors determining transport costs across countries in a pooled estimation. The paper contributes to the transportation literature by developing and applying a new measure for transport costs. Noteworthy differences between developed and developing countries are identified, which leads to the conclusion that evidence on the success of road network projects in industrialized countries cannot be easily transferred to the developing countries.

    The last paper explores yet another important area of development policy: educational policy. It embeds the labor force effects from increased enrollment under different circumstances within a very detailed recursive-dynamic CGE model. The main advancement, as compared to other CGE studies in this field, lies in the explicit modeling of the educational process itself. The model carefully considers the short term requirements in terms of skilled staff and physical schooling facilities, which require financing in order to increase enrollment, as well as the long term effects of the above on skilled labor provision. Moreover, the paper looks into the trade-off between current foregone earnings from child labor and future possible returns from higher education, doing so by including child labor into the model.

  • Schröder, H.; Clausen, V.; Behr, A. (Hrsg.): Essener Beiträge zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung - Festschrift für Prof. Dr. Walter Assenmacher. Springer Gabler, Wiesbaden 2012. BIB Download Details
  • Clausen, V.; Schürenberg-Frosch, H.: Unterschiedliche nationale Konsumfunktionen als Quelle konjunktureller Asymmetrien in Europa?. In: Hendrik Schröder; Volker Clausen; Andreas Behr (Hrsg.): Essener Beiträge zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung. Springer Gabler, 2012, S. 53-74. BIB Download Details
  • Frey, M.; Olekseyuk Z.: The EU-Ukraine Trade Liberalization - How Much Do the Costs of Tariff Elimination Matter?. In: Osteuropa-Institut Regensburg, Working Paper (2011) Nr. 308. BIB Download Details
  • Klose, J.: Political Business Cycles and Monetary Policy Revisited - An Application of a Two-Dimensional Asymmetric Taylor Reaction Function. 286. Ruhr Economic Paper (Hrsg.), 2011. BIB Download Details
  • Belke, A.; Klose, J.: Does the ECB Rely on a Taylor Rule During the Financial Crisis? Comparing Ex-post and Real Time Data with Real Time Forecasts. In: Economic Analysis and Policy (2011) Nr. 41, S. 147-171. BIB Download Details
  • Belke, A.; Klose, J.: Does the ECB Rely on a Taylor Rule? Comparing Ex-post with Real Time Data. In: Banks and Bank Systems, Jg. 6 (2011) Nr. 2, S. 46-61. BIB Download Details
  • Klose, J.: A Simple Way to Overcome the Zero Lower Bound of Interest Rates for Central Banks: Evidence from the Fed and the ECB within the Financial Crisis. In: International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Jg. 4 (2011) Nr. 3, S. 279-296. doi:10.1504/IJMEF.2011.040923 BIB Download Details

    In this paper we investigate how Fed and ECB monetary policy changed within the financial crisis of 2007-2010. We argue that due to the very low interest rates classical monetary policy rules like e.g. the Taylor rule could lead to false conclusions. We propose a new way of conducting monetary policy when the zero lower bound becomes binding via shaping the inflation expectations. Our results indicate that using this modified Taylor rule shows similar tendencies in the reaction coefficients as the standard Taylor rule at least if no interest smoothing term is included.

  • Klose, J.: Asymmetric Taylor Reaction Functions of the ECB: An Approach Depending on the State of the Economy. In: North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Jg. 22 (2011) Nr. 2, S. 149-163. doi:10.1016/j.najef.2011.01.002 BIB Download Details

    We introduce a new approach to estimate asymmetric Taylor reaction functions where asymmetries depend crucially on the state of the economy which is in the Taylor rule framework the combination of inflation and output deviations. Thus we categorize the sample into four subsamples which correspond to all possible combinations concerning inflation and output deviations. Moreover we introduce a quadratic  term of inflation and the output gap in the estimation equation for each state in order to capture possible nonlinearities within each state. The approach is tested using data for the ECB because the ECB has communicated an explicit inflation target.

  • Schuerenberg-Frosch, H.: One Model Fits All? - Determinants of Transport Costs Across Sectors and Country Groups. 122 . University of Göttingen (Hrsg.), CEGE Discussion Paper, 2011. BIB Download Details
  • Clausen, V.; Wohltmann, H.-W.: Oil price shocks and Cyclical Dynamics in an Asymmetric Monetary Union. 274. Ruhr Economic Papers, Essen 2011. BIB Download Details
  • Clausen, V.; Klose, J.: Optimale Geld- und Fiskalpolitik unter Unsicherheit. In: Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Studium, Jg. 39 (2010) Nr. 5, S. 236-242. BIB Download Details
  • Schuerenberg-Frosch, H.: Improving on Africa's Roads - Modeling Infrastructure Investment and its Effect on Subsistence Agriculture. 45. Research Commitee for Development Economics, Verein für Socialpolitik (Hrsg.), Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2010. BIB Download Details
  • Rausch, S.; Rutherford, T.F.: Computation of Equilibria in OLG Models with Many Heterogeneous Households. In: Computational Economics, Jg. 2 (2010) Nr. 36, S. 171-189. BIB Download Details
  • Belke, A.; Klose, J.: (How) Do the ECB and the Fed React to Financial Market Uncertainty? - The Taylor Rule in Times of Crisis. DIW Discussion Paper 972, Ruhr Economic Paper 166, ROME Discussion Paper Series 10-01, Berlin, Essen 2010. BIB Download Details

    We assess differences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the Fed and the ECB before
    and after the start of the subprime crisis. For this purpose, we apply an explicit estimate of the
    equilibrium real interest rate and of potential output in order to account for variations within
    these variables over time. We argue that measures of money and credit growth, interest rate
    spreads and asset price inflation should be added to the classical Taylor rule because
    these variables are proxies of a change in the equilibrium interest rate and are, thus, also
    likely to have played a major role in setting policy rates during the crisis.
    Our empirical results gained from a state-space model and GMM estimations reveal that, as
    far as the Fed is concerned, the impact of consumer price inflation, and money and credit
    growth turns negative during the crisis while the sign of the asset price inflation coefficient
    turns positive. Thus we are able to establish significant differences in the parameters of the
    reaction functions of the Fed before and after the start of the subprime crisis. In case of the
    ECB, there is no evidence of a change in signs. Instead, the positive reaction to credit growth,
    consumer and house price inflation becomes even stronger than before. Moreover we find
    evidence of a less inertial policy of both the Fed and the ECB during the crisis.


    JEL code: E43, E52, E58

  • Belke, A.; Klose, J.: Does the ECB Rely on a Taylor Rule? - Comparing Ex-post with Real Time Data. DIW Discussion Paper 917, Ruhr Economic Paper 133, ROME Discussion Paper Series 09-05, Berlin, Essen 2009. BIB Download Details

    We assess the differences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the ECB when using ex-post data instead of real time forecasts and vice versa. We argue that previous comparative studies in this field mixed up two separate effects. First, the differences resulting from the use of ex-post and real time data per se and, second, the differences emerging from the use of non-modified real time data instead of real-time data based forecasted values and vice versa. Since both effects can influence the reaction to inflation and the output gap either way, we use a more clear-cut approach to disentangle the partial effects. Our estimation results indicate that using real time instead of ex post data leads to higher estimated inflation coefficients while the opposite is true for the output gap coefficients. If real time data forecasts for the current period are used (since actual data become available with a lag), this empirical pattern is even strengthened in the sense of even increasing the inflation response but lowering the reaction to the output gap while the reverse is true if "true" forecasts of real time data for several periods are employed.

    JEL Classification:
    E43, E58

  • Clausen, V.; Schürenberg-Frosch, H.: Aid, Spending Strategies and Productivity Effects - A Multi-Sectoral CGE-Analysis for Zambia. 127. Ruhr Economic Papers, Essen 2009. BIB Download Details

    Numerous econometric studies fail to detect a signicant and robust relationship
    between international aid and economic growth in the recipient countries.
    Dutch Disease effects might be responsible for this result.This paper examines
    the relation between aid and its effectiveness in a multi-sector multihousehold
    Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)-framework. Given that
    international transfers to African countries increasingly take the form of general
    financial support to the government, different spending strategies and
    their macroeconomic, sectoral and distributional effects are evaluated in a
    two-stage simulation making a distinction between immediate direct effects
    and possible long-run effects from increased productivity. While the model
    simulates the effects of additional aid in Zambia it can be used as a blueprint
    for other African countries.

  • Rausch, S.: Macroeconomic Consequences of Demographic Change: Modelling Issues and Applications (1). Springer Verlag , Heidelberg 2009. BIB Download Details
  • Fichtner, F.: Optimum Currency Area Theory Revisited - New Insights From Stochastic Dynamics (1). 2008. BIB Download Details
  • Clausen, V.; Hayo, B.: Asymmetric Monetary Policy Effects in EMU. In: Applied Economics, Jg. 38 (2006), S. 1123-1134. BIB Download Details

    This paper uses a semi-structural dynamic modelling approach to investigate asymmetric monetary transmission in Europe. A system of equations containing reaction functions for monetary policy, output and inflation equations is simultaneously estimated for France, Germany, and Italy. Extensive cross equation tests show that relatively large differences in simulated impulse responses are still consistent with the notion that the transmission mechanism is homogeneous across the three major EMU countries. However, monetary policy impulses show a relatively stronger effect on the output gap in Italy and Germany. Out-of-sample tests do not find a structural break in the transmission mechanisms prior to EMU.

  • Emami Namini, J.: International Trade and Multinational Activity - Heterogeneity of Firms, Incentives for Foreign Direct Investment, and International Business Cycle Dynamics (1). 1. Auflage. Springer Verlag, 2006. BIB Download Details
  • Clausen, V.; Hayo, B.: Monetary Policy in the Euro Area - Lessons from the First Years. In: International Economics and Economic Policy, Jg. 1 (2005) Nr. 4, S. 349-364. BIB Download Details

    This paper investigates in a consistent semi-structural empirical framework three current issues of monetary policy in the euro area. First, regarding policy transmission we offer a three-stage procedure to combine the efficient estimation of economic structure prior to EMU with current ECB monetary policy. Second, we test whether the regime change leads – before or after – EMU to structural instability. Third, we investigate the stance of monetary policy in Europe. We compare a "counterfactual" ECB reaction function based on average interest rates prior to EMU with actual ECB policy. Furthermore, we compare actual ECB policy with interest rate projections using Bundesbank reaction functions and euroland data.

  • Clausen, V.; Wohltmann, H.W.: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Dynamics in an Asymmetric Monetary Union. In: Journal of International Money and Finance, Jg. 24 (2005) Nr. 1, S. 137-367. BIB Download Details

    This paper investigates the dynamic effects of monetary and fiscal policy in a monetary union, which is characterized by asymmetric interest rate transmission. This asymmetry gives rise to intertemporal reversals in the relative effectiveness of policy on member country outputs. The direction and the number of these reversals depend on whether policies are unanticipated or anticipated. We also study the coordination between monetary and fiscal policy in a monetary union. Monetary policy may completely stabilize European output after unanticipated fiscal policy shocks. With anticipated fiscal policy shocks, complete stabilization throughout the overall adjustment process requires monetary policy to be time-inconsistent.

  • Reinhold, C.: Mikrostruktur des Devisenmarktes, Auftragsfluss und Wechselkursentwicklung (1). Europäische Hochschulschriften, Frankfurt am Main 2005. BIB Download Details
  • Clausen, V.: Comment on paper by A. Kuhn: The International Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence for Selected OECD Countries. In: Scheide, J.; Straubhaar, T.; Winkelmann, R. (Hrsg.): Applied Economics Quarterly Supplement 2003: Globalisation: the End of National Economic Policy? New Forms of International Business Cycle Linkages. 54. Auflage. 2003, S. 143-147. BIB Download Details
  • Fichtner, F.: Germany and the European Business Cycle - An Analysis of Causal Relations in an International Real Business Cycle Model. In: Applied Economics Quarterly Supplement, Jg. 54 (2003). PDF BIB Download Details
  • Clausen, V.; Wohltmann, H.-W.: Foreign Price Shocks and Monetary Policy in an Asymmetric Monetary Union. 124. Diskussionsbeiträge aus dem Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaften (Hrsg.), Essen 2002. PDF BIB Download Details
  • Clausen, V.: Unterschiedliche makroökonomische Strukturen, wirtschaftliche Integration und einheitliche Geldpolitik in Europa. In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, Bd. 222 (2002) Nr. 1, S. 1-21. BIB Download Details

    This paper reviews the literature on asymmetric monetary transmission within the European Monetary Union (EMU). At first, a stylized model is presented in order to highlight the importance of asymmetric monetary transmission for the decision-making of the European Central Bank (ECB). The transmission mechanism is then decomposed into several subsequent stages. Various macroeconomic indicators for the EU countries related to financial, goods and labor markets are then used to assess the empirical relevance of asymmetries across the EU countries. Then, models of a monetary union are used to assess to which extent cross-country differences in individual channels of transmission translate into differences in the overall strength of monetary transmission in Europe. Finally, the paper assesses the extent to which the transmission patterns in Europe convergence as a result of the establishment of EMU. The paper finds the empirical evidence on cross-country differences in the policy impact to be inconclusive and provides suggestions for further theoretical and empirical research.

  • Clausen, V.; Wohltmann, H.-W.: Dynamische Effekte symmetrischer Nachfrage- und Angebotspolitiken in einer asymmetrischen Währungsunion. In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, Bd. 222 (2002) Nr. 2, S. 230-257. BIB Download Details

    The paper analyzes the dynamic effects of anticipated symmetric demand and supply side policies within the framework of a macroeconomic model of a small monetary union, which is characterized by asymmetric wage adjustment equations of Phillips‘ curve type. It is shown that an anticipated simultaneous increase in government expenditure in both member countries leads to a short-run fall in output and to temporary divergences in output developments. From the perspective of the country with the lower wage flexibility the output differential is positive in the short-run. In the course of the subsequent adjustment process the relative cyclical position is reversed. The difference between the two member country outputs changes its sign due to changes in the internal and external terms of trade. Similar results hold with a simultaneous reduction of labor extra-costs in both countries. Compared with a symmetric increase in government expenditure the development of the output differential is essentially opposite in sign.

  • Clausen, V.; Hayo, B.: Makroökonomische Implikationen der Mitgliedschaft Deutschlands in der Europäischen Währungsunion. In: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Jg. 71 (2002) Nr. 3, S. 339-353. BIB Download Details
  • Clausen, V.: Internationale Kapitalmobilität und nationale Wirtschaftspolitik. In: Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Studium, Jg. 31 (2002) Nr. 11, S. 621-626. PDF BIB Download Details
  • Clausen, V.: Asymmetric Monetary Transmission in Europe (3). Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York 2001. BIB Download Details
  • Clausen, V.; Wohltmann, H.-W.: Geldpolitik, Fiskalpolitik und ausländische Zinsschocks in einer asymmetrischen Währungsunion. In: Kredit und Kapital, Jg. 34 (2001) Nr. 2, S. 149-177. BIB Download Details

    This paper analyzes the dynamic effects of monetary policy, fiscal policy, and foreign interest rate shocks in a monetary union, which is small relative to the rest of the world and simultaneously characterized by supply-side and demand-side asymmetries. We investigate both, the implications at the aggregate European level as well as in the individual member countries. The analysis distinguishes between anticipated and unanticipated shocks. We find that monetary policy, which is expansionary at the aggregate European level, may have a contractionary impact in individual member countries. Whereas monetary and fiscal policy cause temporary cyclical divergences within the monetary union, shocks to the world interest rate lead to lasting cyclical divergences within the monetary union.

  • Clausen, V.; Jeong-Ryeol, K.: The Long-Run Stability of European Money Demand. In: Journal of Economic Integration, Jg. 15 (2000) Nr. 3, S. 468-505. BIB Download Details

    The European Central Bank uses a monetary strategy which represents a combination of monetary targeting and direct inflation targeting In this context, the stability of the long-run European money demand function is widely seen as a precondition for a strategy of monetary targeting. This paper investigates the aggregate demand for money in Europe including those countries representing the initial group in the European Monetary Union. First, we identify stable (in the sense of cointegrated) European money demand functions for M1 as well as for M3. Second, we investigate parameter constancy over time and do not find suggestive evidence of structural instability Overall, the results provide empirical support for the European Central Bank to target a European monetary aggregate.

  • Clausen, V.: Feste versus flexible Wechselkurse - Anmerkungen zum Nobelpreis 1999 an Robert A. Mundell. In: Wirtschaftsdienst, Jg. 79 (1999) Nr. 12, S. 748-752. BIB Download Details
  • Clausen, V.: Geldnachfrage und Geldpolitik in Europa. In: Baltensperger, E. (Hrsg.): Transmissionsmechanismen der Geldpolitik, Schriften des Vereins für Socialpolitik, Bd. 264. Berlin 1999, S. 55-92. BIB Download Details
  • Clausen, V.: Money Demand and Monetary Policy in Europe. In: Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, Bd. 134 (1998) Nr. 4, S. 712-740. BIB Download Details

    The European Central Bank will soon have to decide on her monetary strategy. This paper discusses properties of money demand functions and implications for monetary policy in a monetary targeting regime. Special attention is paid to different concepts of stability of money demand, to the length and variability of adjustment lags, and to the controllability of the money stock. At the European level, stable money demand functions are identified for M1 and M3. However, M3 appears to be less controllable than M1. Long and variable adjustment lags in the demand for M3 weaken the case for broad money as a monetary target.

  • Clausen, V.: Problems in the Transition to European Monetary Union. In: Kredit und Kapital, Jg. 31 (1998) Nr. 4, S. 471-493. BIB Download Details

    Three potential problems in the transition to European Monetary Union are analyzed in a three country model of a currency union. The problems discussed are the choice of a misaligned conversion rate at the time of the move to the currency union, the uncertainty with respect to the future stance of monetary policy of the European Central Bank and the risk of an asymmetric real wage push within the monetary union. The macroeconomic implications of these disturbances are analyzed and alternative strategies for monetary and fiscal policy are evaluated.

  • Clausen, V.; Willms, M.: Probleme des Übergangs zur Europäischen Währungsunion. In: Heinemann, F.; Schröder, M. (Hrsg.): Europäische Währungsunion und Kapitalmärkte, Schriftenreihe des Zentrums für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, Bd 17. Baden-Baden 1997, S. 11-31. BIB Download Details
  • Clausen, V.: Comment on paper by J. M. van Brabant: Banking, Foreign Investment, Endogenous Growth and Systemic Transformation. In: Welfens, P. J .J.; Wolf, H. C. (Hrsg.): Banking, International Capital Flows and Growth in Europe. Berlin, Heidelberg 1997, S. 259-262. BIB Download Details
  • Clausen, V.: China: Marktpotential und Strategien für den Markteintritt. In: Studie für die Unternehmensberatung Tillinghast. Frankfurt a. M. 1995. BIB Download Details
  • Clausen, V.: Konsequenzen einer Abweichung vom Geldmengenziel für die Geldpolitik. In: Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Volkswirtschaft und Statistik, Jg. 131 (1995) Nr. 4, S. 617-636. BIB Download Details

    The Bundesbank failed to achieve her monetary targets in numerous years. Against this background the present paper discusses the implications of these deviations for the exchange rate and the price level. The model by Dornbusch (1976) is augmented by an equation which captures the correction of the deviations in subsequent periods. In the case of single period deviations with immediately beginning correction the volatility of the exchange rate and the price level will be the smaller, the more decisively the money stock is driven back to the equilibrium level. In contrast, in the case of the multi-period deviations the volatility of the exchange rate will be the higher the faster the correction of the money stock.

  • Clausen, V.: Konsolidierung des Staatshaushalts und Wechselkurs. In: Konjunkturpolitik, Jg. 41 (1995) Nr. 2, S. 95-114. BIB Download Details

    The paper analyzes the implications of fiscal consolidation efforts for the real external exchange rate. In the model following Dornbusch (1976) augmented by an equation reflecting the evolution of government spending, it is shown that the fluctuations of the real external exchange rate will be the smaller, the more decisively policy makers reduce public deficits. On the other hand, all other macroeconomic variables exhibit more short-term variability. In the decision about the speed of fiscal consolidation, policy makers face a short-term tradeoff between real exchange rate and other macroeconomic stability.

  • Clausen, V.; Willms, M.: Der Buffer-Stock-Ansatz der Geldnachfrage. In: Duwendag, D. (Hrsg.): Neuere Entwicklungen in der Geldtheorie und Währungspolitik, Schriften des Vereins für Socialpolitik, Bd. 235. Berlin 1995, S. 11-43. BIB Download Details
  • Clausen, V.; Stahn, C.: Eingriffsmöglichkeiten in die Staatshaushalte der Empfängerländer bei der Kreditvergabe von IWF und Weltbank. In: Studie für die Unternehmensberatung Tillinghast. Frankfurt a. M. 1994. BIB Download Details
  • Clausen, V.; Willms, M.: Lessons from German Monetary Union for European Monetary Union. In: Journal of International and Comparative Economics, Jg. 3 (1994) Nr. 3, S. 195-228. BIB Download Details

    The paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of monetary union in Germany (GMU) and tries to draw conclusions for European Monetary Union (EMU). For Germany, currency conversion led to a substantial appreciation in East Germany and contributed there to a decline in production and to heavy unemployment, necessitating high fiscal transfers. Interest rates rose, the DM-exchange rate appreciated and the capital account turned into a deficit position. On the other hand, it seems that money supply, money demand, and inflation have only been influenced in the short run. It can be shown that many of the problems experienced in Germany result from the joint and rapid introduction of the monetary, economic and social unification with a former socialist country. Therefore, if EMU is introduced as a separate affair costs and benefits will be relatively small, especially once wages are allowed to be flexible. The basic lesson from GMU for EMU is not to overloook the problems associated with a social union in Europe and not to underestimate the pressure towards wage equalisation in a monetary union.

  • Clausen, V.: Zur Bedeutung der Geldnachfragefunktion für die Geldpolitik. In: Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Studium, Jg. 23 (1994) Nr. 7, S. 330-335. BIB Download Details
  • Clausen, V.: Geldpolitik, Fiskalpolitik und Wechselkurs (3). Verlag Peter Lang, Frankfurt a. M. 1993. BIB Download Details

    Gegenstand der Untersuchung ist die theoretische und empirische Analyse der Bedeutung der Geld- und Fiskalpolitik für die Wechselkursentwicklung. Als Referenzsystem wird dabei das Modell von Dornbusch (1976) zugrundegelegt. Mittels einer theoretischen Sensitivitätsanalyse wird zunächst für geldpolitische Impulse geprüft, inwieweit die Hypothese überschießender Wechselkursreaktionen (Overshooting) auch in verallgemeinerten Modellstrukturen Gültigkeit besitzt. Im nächsten Schritt wird die Frage gestellt, unter welchen Umständen auch durch fiskalpolitische Impulse überschießende Wechselkursreaktionen ausgelöst werden. In der empirischen Analyse wird sowohl der kurz- als auch der langfristige Einfluß der Geld- und Fiskalpolitik auf die Entwicklung des DM/Dollar-Wechselkurses geschätzt.

  • Clausen, V.: Fiskalpolitik und Wechselkursovershooting. In: Kredit und Kapital, Jg. 26 (1993) Nr. 3, S. 347-361. BIB Download Details

    This paper demonstrates on the basis of a modified (Dornbusch 1976) model with real income levels determined by short-term demand and with a nominal monetary demand level dependent upon the consumer price index that substantial exchange rate fluctuations may be caused by fiscal impulses in both the long and the short terms. Exchange-rate-overshooting in the short term occurs whenever the interest rate response is normal, i. e. when the level of domestic interest rises after a period of expansionary fiscal policy. It is shown that the longterm exchange rate effects of an expansionary fiscal policy course depend strongly on the respective combination of structural parameters. These effects have hitherto been neglected in the analyses made, which focused exclusively on the short-term fluctuations around an equilibrium value not yet examined in detail. It is also demonstrated that there may be a tradeoff between the short-term and the long-term exchange-rate varialility under certain circumstances.

  • Clausen, V.; Willms, M.: Unabhängigkeit der Zentralbank. In: Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Studium, Jg. 22 (1993) Nr. 12, S. 605-610. BIB Download Details
  • Clausen, V.; Haupt, T.: Zur Notwendigkeit einer Elbquerung westlich von Hamburg. In: Studie für den Unternehmensverband Südholstein. Kiel 1989. BIB Download Details
  • Prüser; J.; Schlösser; A.: The Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on European Economies - Evidence from a TVP-FAVAR. In: Ruhr Economic Papers, Jg. 2017 Nr. 7, S. 30. doi: 10.4419/86788826 Volltext BIB Download Details